Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Sox-O-Meter: Potential Trade Aquisitions

Ah yes, the last few days of July. Must be time for trade rumors to swirl. Kenny Williams and the Sox have watched from the sideline while CC Sabathia, Rich Harden, Joe Blanton, and others have been moved to contending teams. Now, about 10 days before the trade deadline, with the Twins nipping at their heels and the Tigers stubbornly refusing to fall from viewing distance, the Sox have been an active name in trade rumors. But are there any deals out their worth taking? Let's see...

1 Sox... (Sock?) = Steer clear, 5 Sox = Bring it home, Kenny.

A.J. BURNETT
Of all the pitchers supposedly left on the open market, Burnett is probably the most enticing. He's having a bit of a down year (10-9 but an ERA of 4.84), but he's still striking out just about 1 batter per inning.

PROS:
In relatively limited action, he's owned the Twins to the tune of a .182/.207/.309 line, and he's pitched well against Detroit.

CONS: Though he's signed through 2010, his contract allows him to opt out of the deal after this season if he likes, and given the current market for starting pitching, he'd likely make a king's ransom in the free agent pool. Also, Burnett is a notorious health risk and has not pitched 200 innings in a season since he was 28 in 2005. The Blue Jays have also said they're not interested in dealing Burnett, and with plenty of other teams looking for starting pitching around baseball, it will probably take an offer the Sox simply cannot produce to lure him from Toronto.

VERDICT:

A live arm that would certainly help the rotation, but will ultimately be too expensive both in the short and long term.

JUSTIN DUCHSCHERER
Though Oakland used Duchscherer as a reliever for the last 4 seasons, Duchscherer's responded brilliantly to his move to the rotation. An All-Star selection, he's pitched 115 innings and has a microscopic 1.87 ERA. Already having dealt Rich Harden and Joe Blanton, the A's are in a full "Sell Now" mode.

PROS:
Hard to argue when you add the American League's best ERA to your pitching staff. Salary is just over $1 million, very friendly to acquire. Even though he is a free agent after this season, unlikely will be a Type A Free Agent thanks to his years spent in the bullpen, so would not cost the Sox potential draft picks the way A.J. Burnett would. Finally, would replace Mark Buehrle as most misspelled player's name on the Sox.

CONS: Plays in Oakland, in one of the most friendly pitcher's parks in the league. As of today, has thrown 115.2 innings, 30 more than his previous career best. Low strikeout-to-innings pitched ratio also doesn't bode well for life at the Cell.

VERDICT

A risky gamble, and not one I'd necessarily be willing to take.

DANIEL CABRERA
Granted, his name hasn't been thrown around much at all this trade deadline season, but you don't have to have that great of a memory to recall the days when the Orioles always seemed to be willing to part with the 6'7'' Dominican. Even in this his "break-out" year, Cabrera's ERA is still 4.57 and his career ERA is just a shade under 5.

PROS:
At only 27 years old, there's still a lot of room for him to grow. Is also signed until 2010, so he wouldn't be a temporary fixture in the rotation. Seems like the kind of guy Don Cooper has had a string of successes with; plenty of people rave about his potential, but he never seems to be able to put it all together.

CONS: Its impossible to tell what the Orioles are thinking. They trade Erik Bedard in the off-season to Seattle for prospects, but then they balk at trading away Brian Roberts? As long as Peter Angelos is running the ship, no one will ever know exactly what the mood is in Baltimore.

VERDICT

If the Orioles hint he's available and they don't ask for the farm and the kitchen sink, I think he'd look great in silver and black.

GREG MADDUX
Yeah, that Greg Maddux. If you haven't noticed the Padres are terrible and one thing terrible teams don't need are aging pitchers.

PROS: Still pitching a ton of innings, currently on pace to top 200 innings again. Couldn't hurt to expose young pitchers like Floyd and Danks to his knowledge of the game, right? Plus, he'd be another savvy veteran not intimidated by the bright lights of a pennant chase and baseball in October.

CONS: Has a full no-trade clause and is rumored to not want to leave the West Coast. Despite longevity, his ERA has climbed over the past two years, despite playing PETCO Park, which is slightly smaller than the Grand Canyon. He's still 42 years old, and will eventually break down, right? His agent is Scott Boras and his current contract is only good through this season, so he probably wouldn't be more than a 2-month rental.

VERDICT

I'm not really sold either way. On the one hand, he probably still is a better option than what the Sox have in their system right now. On the other hand, his glory days are long, long behind him.

finally...

FREDDY GARCIA
Not having pitched since last season in Philadelphia, he should be well rested right? Garcia and his agent will be holding an audition for him on August 5, and yes he wouldn't come via a deadline trade, but he still believes he's got what it takes to help a contender out during a stretch run.

PROS:
Already familiar with the Sox coaching staff and most of the players, he'd probably be the easiest to fit into the grand scheme of things. Freddy also became a fan favorite in his brief time here and when healthy, he's always been a big-game pitcher.

CONS: Really unsure about his arm, and despite the buzz he's been getting recently, there's still a lot of doubt as to whether he can ever be the same pitcher he was in his prime. Baseball history is littered with failed comeback of power pitchers turned finesse guys due to injury, and most of us remember watching Freddy try to locate upper-80's fastballs in 2006, only to serve somebody a meatball right over the heart of the plate. Plus, with a lot of other teams looking at Garcia, it's pretty likely someone will overpay for his services.

VERDICT

I doubt the Sox will bring back Freddy, but I'd hope they don't discount him completely. I don't think you can question his heart or desire, but you sure can question his right shoulder.

As always, thanks to baseball-reference.com for the stats, MLB Trade Rumors for most of the names I dropped, and MLB4U.com for contract information.

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