Some Quick Notes and Arizona Fall League Updates

Well, somewhere in watching the Hawks blow a 2-goal lead with 10 minutes left in the 3rd period, my mind wandered back to baseball and I realized I haven't been nearly as productive around here as I hoped when the season ended. Anyways, in the next few weeks I hope to have a few things done around here, such as some player reports and making cases for Carlos Quentin to win the AL MVP and Alexei Ramirez to win the Rookie of the Year (even though I know neither will).

I start off tonight with a real good post over at Sox Machine, that analyzes the current "predicament" the Sox have with some aging players, and why no one should be terribly upset if Williams and the Sox don't make a deliberate attempt to get younger this off-season. Real good read, I'd recommend it to anyone.

Kind of a fluff article in the Tribune today about Aaron Rowand helping cousin James Shields reach his full potential and become one of the stars of the Rays. Shields beat the Sox in Game 1 of the ALDS, so uh, thanks, Aaron.

And a couple of transaction notes, the Red Sox grabbed Dewon Day from the Sox off waivers. Also, MLB.com reported that Josh Fields had arthroscopic knee surgery last week, which does nothing to improve my own personal evaluation of Fields (briefly; he sucks).

Finally, the White Sox have 7 prospects currently playing in the Arizona Fall League with the 1st place Peoria Saguaros (at 8-3, they lead the American Division by 2 games and have the best record in the AFL). The two most intriguing prospects there are Aaron Poreda and Gordon Beckham, the team's best pitching and positional prospect respectively. After starting 27 games with Winston-Salem and Birmingham this year, Poreda has been used exclusively out of Peoria's bullpen; working 4 innings in 4 games. His 6 strikeouts look good, but 5 hits and 2 walks has his WHIP almost approaching 2.

In 5 games, Beckham is hitting .250 with a pair of doubles and 2 walks for a line of .250/.368/.375.

Aside from Poreda and Beckham, 2 other Sox prospects have looked good in their first few weeks of AFL play; Cole Armstrong, a left-handed hitting catcher who hit well in 2 stops in Birmginham and Charlotte this season has continued hitting in Peoria, AZ to a tune of .385/.429/.577 along with a homer and 6 RBI. Stefan Gartrell, a 24-year-old outfielder who played at AA Birmingham this season, is hitting .280/.379/.360. Really the only downer for the Sox at the AFL right now is Carlos Torres, who was lit up in his first 3 appearances of the season, but pitched a perfect inning Friday against Mesa, so hopefully he has turned the corner.

All the Saguaros' stats can be found here.

'08 Season a Failure?, Early Off-Season Analysis, and the Sox Are a Hit on the Boob Tube

We'll start tonight with a delightful piece from Mike Imrem that was published in The Daily Herald about a week ago. In it, Imrem lambasts the Cubs and Sox as a pair of losers who deserve the same treatment after their LDS flops this past October; even if the Cubs were sexy pre-season picks to win the National League in the World Series, cruised to 97 wins, and were generally considered the best team in the N.L. from Game 1 to 162 while the Sox were written off as pretenders in the A.L. Central and only won 89 games this season, even with the added benefit of getting to play a 163rd game!

If you can't tell, I strongly disagree with Mr. Imrem, who summarizes his basic position when he writes,

The Rays eliminated the Sox in four games and the Sox are considered successes.

Down deep they aren't.

I could go on copying and pasting his rants about how Chicago fans should expect a winner every year, yada yada yada... My only question is where does a Chicago baseball fan get the right to take on that kind of Yankee-fan mentality? When did baseball only become a game of "World Championship or Nothing?" The 100-year-and counting and 88-year-old droughts aren't enough? I'm not saying I'm 100% satisified with the way this season ended, but to paint it a dissapointment and failure is remarkably oversimplifying what this great game is all about.

In the end, I agree with Richard Roeper, a great Sox fan, who summed it up when he noted that, simply stated, the Rays were just a better team. Over the course of the regular season and in 3 of the 4 ALDS games, Tampa Bay was just the superior baseball team. Even with just one week passed since the 2008 White Sox season ended, the dissapointment I felt after Game 4 is fading; this Tampa Bay team is just really good.

Where I stand with the Sox, however, is why I feel this year was a success. Last October, the White Sox were coming off a 90-loss season and looked old and full of holes. The Indians and Tigers looked much better on paper, and it appeared the Sox were doomed to spend the next few years struggling to keep their heads above .500. Now, I look at a roster teaming with good, young players like Carlos Quentin, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and Alexei Ramirez. I see some holes that if plugged correctly, will make the Sox an immediate contender for next year's American League pennant. In short, I've turned nearly 180-degrees on the Sox. I can't wait for next year to begin. They say that hope always springs eternal in February and March, but if hope springs eternal in October and November, well then how could it be bad?

If you remember, earlier this month I wrote about the fact the Sox had already pulled the official "Division Champs" hats from whitesox.com... Not that I'm 100% sure, but it looks like the White Sox shop has even less Division Champs stuff up now. I could be wrong, but I could have sworn there were more than 5 items up for sale last time I checked a few weeks ago. At any rate, I'm sure there's not a ton of this stuff lying around so get it while you can.

This afternoon, The Cincinnati Enquirer reported Ken Griffey, Jr. had his left knee scoped today in Cincinnati. The Enquirer also reported that it's very unlikely the Sox will pick up the $16 million option on Griffey this year, but if Griffey's knee is healthy for '09 (a big, big *if*, I know), he could be an intriguing role player for the Sox. If this bum knee was responsible for his power outage in '08, when his at-bats per home run nearly doubled from 14.27 AB/HR in 2007 to 29.33 AB/HR in 2008, why wouldn't you want a power-hitting left-handed bat with some outfield defensive versatility? For the right price, of course.

The White Sox want you to know that Kenny Williams is hard at work... At least that seems to be the angle of this piece published yesterday on the main site. Though the first half is the general "rah-rah" fluff you'd expect from the official voice of the Sox; the usual lines about needing balance, consistency, depth, etc. However, the 2nd half has some nice analysis of the current state of the Sox's payroll situation. As of right now, the White Sox have 13 players under controlled contract for 2009 at the tune of $99.125 million. With key guys like Bobby Jenks, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd either up for arbitration or still needing to settle on an '09 contract, that figure should balloon, I'm guessing to around last year's Opening Day payroll of $114 million before you even finish the 25-man roster.

I don't know how this will handcuff Williams and the Sox. Merkin wants you to believe that Josh Fields and Chris Getz can be starters on contending baseball teams, but I really don't see it, especially with Fields who is more of the same "all home run, little defense, not much else" that everyone was so damned pissed about in the first place. This also doesn't really address the fact that with Jose Contreras out until at least midyear, the Sox currently have no real plan in place for the 5th starter's spot, other than now to have Richard and Broadway duke it out and pray Contreras isn't terrible when he comes back.

Bottom line: Plenty of holes, not as much money.

Northwestern University's Medill Reports suggests that high ticket prices for the Sox, as well as Bears, Cubs, and Bulls are here to stay despite recent economic problems. The article mostly focuses on the Cubs (rightfully so, since their average ticket price is now 60% higher than the MLB average ticket price), there are some good graphs and interesting data if you're into the whole sports economics thing.

Greg Hansen, a columnits from Tucson, Arizona feels the Sox are trying to dupe the good residents of Tucson as they try to bolt town for greener pastures in Glendale, a suburb of Phoenix. Apparently the fate of the White Sox Spring Training plans for 2009 is all the talk of Tucson, and Hansen even gets particularly feisty when he writes,

Here is the deal: Reinsdorf and the White Sox will pay $3million to leave town now. Do they really think we are the kind of suckers who would take that deal? Is the cost of blowing up spring training baseball in Tucson a mere $3 million?

Here's my take, as a lifelong Sox fan: I honestly don't care. I'd like to see the Sox get the best deal they can and bolt Tucson for Glendale... Having never been to Arizona, I can't comment as an expert as to what's going on out there, but as far as I can tell, Phoenix is the place to be. I can fly there and not have to drive almost 2 hours through the desert. Just about every other team that trains in Arizona plays somewhere in the Phoenix area. The Phoenix Metro area has over 3 million more people than Tucson, and believe me, that means much more to do non-baseball-related. And finally, have you seen the park the Dodgers and White Sox will share in Glendale? It's beautiful.

Finally, the Sox had a huge gain in television ratings this past season, despite the fact baseball's TV ratings on average suffered in the '08 season. The Sox's rating jumped 67% from 2007, of course boosted by their 17-win improvment over last year. The only team that had a bigger ratings jump, percentagewise, was the Rays, who nearly doubled their ratings in a single year. Paced by both the Sox's and Cubs' play-off runs, Comcast SportsNet was one of the strongest local baseball television stations in the country, and the White Sox finished the season as the 11th most watched team in baseball.

Good-bye, 2008 White Sox

As far as season-ending losses go, this one was pretty painless.

That's the way Jim Margalus at Sox Machine (the best White Sox blog out there) described tonight's 6-2 season ending loss to Tampa Bay. As I sat on my couch, watching the outs slowly melt away, there was no agony or depression like in 2003. No heart-breaking dissapointment a la the 2000 ALDS. No bitter numbess like in 2007. It was just ending. A remarkable season, unlike any other in White Sox history ended today, on our home turf with a whimper. When Ken Griffey, Jr. struck out to end the Sox season and perhaps his career, it was just over, like any other game. Of course, over the next few days when I come from work with nothing to watch on television that baseball is over for the winter, but tonight strangely doesn't feel like that. Tonight was a night to celebrate all the Sox had done in 2008; they went from division doormats to a wild, roller coaster play-off race, to division champs. I think this guy, a part-time columnist from Rockford got it better than anyone else. Even the players and management were in good spirits, all things considered.

From a fan... Good-bye, 2008 White Sox. You weren't my favorite. But this was a great season. I had a lot of fun, and when compared to last year, when in mid-season I was agonizingly counting down the days left in that failed campaign, I am already counting down the days until pitchers and catchers report. I'm pumped for 2009, hoping for more heroics at the Cell.

Not much in the news today... Kenny Williams said he has a plan for this off-season that is a crossroads for the organization. With some premium young talent, like Carlos Quentin, Alexei Ramirez, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd, the Sox have an enviable core to build around, but there are a lot of question marks, some the Tribune hits, others it doesn't.

Quickly, as far as I see it, in the starting 9, there are 3 question marks for the '09 Sox... Center field, Shortstop/Second base (depending on where Ramirez settles), and Third base. If the Sox can add three speedy, decent OBP guys to those holes you may be looking at a 90+ win team next year. More off-season musings to come in the next few weeks.

Shockingly, a guy who covers the Tampa Bay Rays has little concept of baseball... The meekest Sox play-off loss since 1919? Come on, dude, stick to the Rays and leave the rest to us. 2000 ring a bell? When the Sox put up the best record in the American League and were swept in the first round by Seattle? Don't pat yourselves on the back too hard, the 15 or so Ray fans out there, we've been beaten much worse before.

A day after his gutsy performance in Game 3, Ranger fans are still trying to put a positive spin on the Danks/McCarthy deal.

Finally, on the lighter side, we have Evan Brunell over at some conglomerate of sports blogs, Most Valuable Network (MVN), who plays GM for the Padres in the '09 off-season today. First move? Trade Khalil Greene, a nearly 29-year-old middle infielder who hit .213/.260/.339 (all career lows) last year for the Padres and is due $6.5 million in '09 for Clayton Richard, the Sox's 24-year-old lefty prospect who had mixed results in his first 1/2-season spend in the bigs.

Uh, OK, dude.

As for White Soxing... I'm not taking too much time off. Work is crazy right now, but there's some off-season stuff to be done.... Player report cards, off-season predictions, etc. Plus, by now I think we all know Kenny Williams isn't afraid to pull the trigger, so there should be some juicy off-season news to write about. Come check back before February, you here?

As for now, enjoy the ALCS, NLCS, and World Series, and go Bears!

Not Over Yet

Hey, what do you know, they do want to keep playing ball?

After looking dead, old, tired, etc. in two ugly losses to the young and upstart Rays this week, the Sox once again stood on the edge of the cliff, toes overhanging, on the verge of season's end... And once again they pulled it out.

They're getting a lot of attention tonight, from local, out of market, national, and even international press regarding their stubborn resiliency. In the past week, the Sox have played 4 "must-win" games and they've come up aces in every one of them. Funny how in just 2 days you can go from down in the dumps (Friday afternoon) to feeling pretty good about things (today). I don't claim that this win swung the series back in the Sox's favor, even if they win tomorrow they still need to beat Tampa Bay in their dome to advance to the ALCS, a tall task in and of itself. But, at least they didn't just roll over and die for Tampa, either. Now, for some praise.

John Danks, of course, who won his 2nd consecutive "Do or Die" game. His line wasn't overpowering, just 6.2 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 BB, and 7 K, but the all important win. Danks made pitches when they counted; in the first Tampa put 2 of its first 3 hitters on base and walked away with a goose egg. In the 2nd, after Tampa Bay struck first on a 45-foot RBI single by Akinori Iwamura, Danks could have imploded, especially when the Iwamura and Jason Bartlett moved to 2nd and 3rd respectively on a wild pitch. Instead, Danks got BJ Upton to fly out and end the threat. Danks wasn't spectacular, but he won.

How about Dewayne Wise, who keeps finding ways to win? The career minor leaguer who came up with the Sox's only big hit in the first two games of this series continued his big play in Game 3, stroking a big, 2-run double down the left field line in the Sox's big 4th inning that turned out to ultimately put the Rays down for good. Wise is hitting .400 in the LDS so far, 2nd on the team only to AJ Pierzynski (who had a nice 2-3, 1 RBI, 1 BB game himself batting 2nd for only the 4th time since September 9th). He's been so good even Fox Sport's Senior Baseball writer, Ken Rosenthal has taken notice:

White Sox left fielder Dewayne Wise is the kind of player who makes the baseball postseason unlike any other. Wise, 30, didn't even have a job at the start of spring training. Now, he's starring in the Division Series.

The bullpen trio of Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, and Bobby Jenks also were huge in putting this game out of reach. When Upton launched his 2-run bomb that made everyone sweat a litle harder, it was clear Danks was out of gas and in a do or die game, Ozzie needed his three best relievers to seal the deal. They were beautiful, whether it be striking out Evan Longoria looking, having great reactions and making great plays on a bizarre dropped third strike against Willy Aybar, or or slamming the door in Tampa Bay's faces with some 95+ MPH heat. For a unit that's been pretty rightfully maligned this season, the Sox's bullpen has by and large stepped up their game lately when needed.

Lastly, Ken Griffey, Jr. for tagging on up Alexei Ramirez's sac fly, moving from 1st to 2nd. Had he played it safe and stayed at first, he wouldn't have scored on Wise's double, and with Juan Uribe and Orlando Cabrera failing to keep the rally going, the Sox would have been out what proved to be a pretty crucial run. For all the homers and power the Sox can display, they played very smart and very aggressive baseball. They did the small and smart things needed to win games, rather than sit back and wait for someone to hit a 3-run homer. It was actually, very fun to watch.

So, Game 4 is tomorrow at the Cell... Gavin Floyd faces Andy Sonnanstine at 4:07 PM Central time. Nothing has been decided yet in the American League, so don't stop believing, Sox fans!

And now, for a few news tidbits before bed. Carlos Quentin took some live BP today at the Cell and said he felt great in a postgame interview. Ozzie Guillen was a bit more skeptical of Quentin's chances of returning to play in 2008, even if the White Sox advance past the ALDS, but it's nice to see Carlos working his tail off to even make a return a slim reality and not a complete fairytale.

Fox Sport's Gerry Fraley wrote a nice piece about Ken Williams' deliberate plan to keep the Sox competitive past the glory of the 2005 season. Though the Sox took a lot of heat after Games 1 and 2 for looking old and plodding; it's nice to step back and look at the enviable talented core of young playes they have; Alexei Ramirez (26), Carlos Quentin (25), Gavin Floyd (25), and John Danks (23) are as solid as any 4 young and upcoming stars on one team. Though 2007 was a distaster, both the short and long term future of the Sox looks good thanks in large part to Williams' wheeling and dealing.

As for Rays' fans, panic may be too strong a word for their current mindset, but concern may be right on target? A Rays blogger noted what a difference one game makes.

The White Sox looked very much at home. And they looked very much like a veteran team, getting stronger as the game wore on, making adjustments to Matt Garza's power game, staying patient, hitting the ball where it was pitched.

Finally, Metromix has a sweet slideshow of photos from the Sox's win this afternoon up. For anyone lucky enought to attend, try and find yourself! Tomorrow's game already looks to be a sell out (at least, according to Ticketmaster), but there are still some deals available on StubHub.

Go Sox.

I Just Can't Help Myself

I know, I know... I don't have much room to gloat... But this is still pretty fuckin' funny.

Three Up, Three Down.. 0-2 Series Hole Style!

Oh god.

I was still confident after Game 1. It was more or less meaningless, the Sox are a veteran team and they basically sacrificed the game when they trotted Javier out there in an effort to reset their taxed rotation. Game 2 was supposed to make everything all right, but after tonight's ugly 6-2 loss, the Sox are once again, on the brink of elimination.

On the plus side, the last time we found ourselves in this situation, the Sox ripped off three straight wins, but methinks taking 3 from Tampa (including another one in their Dome) will be a bit more difficult than winning three straight over the Indians, Tigers, and Twins.

Anyways, here we go.

ONE UP: Clayton Richard
Wow. After Richard allowed an RBI single to Carl Crawford, the first batter he faced, he went on to strike out the next 5 Rays he faced. His line from yesterday is a bit inflated by the fact that Clayton wore down toward the end of his appearance; the last three batters he faced either reached base via the single or walk. Had Ozzie called on Octavio Dotel a few batters earlier, Richard conceivably could have retired 10 Rays and allowed only 2 baserunners. Nice.

Richard was so impressive in his post-season debut, Guillen is seriously considering starting Clayton if the series somehow makes it to a fifth game.

ONE DOWN: The Sox on Fake Field

Metrodome. Rogers Centre. Tropicana Field. Call them whatever you want, but as has been well documented this season, the Sox simply suck in domes and on fake grass. 4-16 this season, the worst record in the American League. I can't say why, maybe it's the teams, maybe it's the way the field plays, but the Sox struggles on turf are more than just a psychological thing at this point, I believe. The plus side is that, even though to advance now the Sox would need to win 1 more game at Tropicana Field, none of the other teams in the postseason play on artificial turf. The Sox are 85-58 on grass this year, a winning percentage over 59%.

TWO UP: Mark Buehrle

Despite the opening pic and his line from Game 2, Mark Buehrle pitched a real nice game. By now, we should all know that he's a guy that pitches to contact, a strategy that doesn't lend itself to turf or hard grass surfaces, where ground balls explode rather than slow down. Yes, he gave up a 2-run, go-ahead homer to Akinowri Iwamura and then was saddled with a few more runs in the 8th, but he still came out and pitched like the bulldog he was, especially considering the Sox found only 2 runs to support him. Here's hoping we get to see #56 at least one more time this year.

TWO DOWN: Wasted Opprotunites

The Sox left 12 runners on base in Game 2, obviously far too many, especially when you're in a tight battle. They left the bases loaded in the 1st, runners at first and second in the 2nd, 4th, and 7th, and a runner on third in the 6th. So many chances, and so many of them wasted. In the 1st inning, when they had Kazmir on the ropes and scored their 2 runs, they were 3-5 with Runners in Scoring Position. They had 7 more at bats with a RISP and failed every single time. You can't win if you can't hit with men on or hit home runs.

THREE UP: Dewayne Wise

Give the guy props, his three-run homer in Game 1 is currently responsible for 50% of the runs the Sox have scored. Wise has had a nice season here for the Sox. Considering he's been a career minor leaguer, I don't know if he's likely to reproduce his numbers, but he's another nice option off the bench and is better at every facet of baseball than Jerry Owens.

Of course, despite the fact he was pretty much the only guy who came through in Game 1, he was on the bench in Game 2, watching Nick Swisher have an OK game, but flying out and striking out in his last two at bats, both times with the potential tying run on base.

THREE DOWN: Jim Thome

For all the press Thome and Griffey have gotten about wanting that elusive World Series ring, neither had done much to show that on the field. The reason I pick on Thome more than Griffey is that Thome is still an intergral part of this team. He bats in the middle of the lineup, and while Junior has clearly lost a step from his prime, Thome still can play at a pretty high level. Yeah, his .245 BA this season was 30 points lower than his career BA and easily the lowest of his career when he wasn't limited to less than 60 games in a season either because he was a 21-year-old rookie still breaking in with the Indians or suffering from back problems in Philadelphia. Thome still his 34 homers, drove in 90 runs, and slugged over 100 points higher than Junior during Griffey's brief stay in Chicago.

This postseason? 1-9 with an RBI, and that easily would have been 0-9 had the Rays had their usual shift on for Thome.

Look, I know Thome was critical to the Sox, and was the only offense in their win over the Twins in the Tiebreaker game, but if you want to do more than just get there again, more production will be required.

Rob Neyer: Sox Aren't Dead Yet

Lead off this morning, with a quick blog post by ESPN's Rob Neyer, who proclaims,

You have to like the Rays in a best-of-five series, straight up. So you have to really like them now, when they need to win just one of three. But the White Sox have a shot because they're heading home, where they have thrived. Tampa Bay's 57-24 record at home was the best in the American League; Chicago's 54-28 was third-best. The White Sox finished second in the American League in home scoring, and their 143 home runs at home were easily the most in the majors.

So there you go. Nice to have someone in Bristol (sort of) on our side. Tampa starts Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine in Games 3 and 4. The Sox that have seen Garza, have hit him well. In 41 combined plate appearances, the Sox have hit him to a combined tune of .382/.488/.618, not bad especially when paired with a notoriously offense-friendly ballpark. However, those numbers are pretty light; Jerry Owens, for Christ's sake, is one of the most seasoned players against Garza.

Sonnanstine is a bit different. Of course, he pitched a three-hit shutout against the Sox earlier this year, but he was pretty mediocre in his two other starts against the Sox; 12 IP, 19 H, 7 R (all earned), 1 BB, 4 K. That's an ERA of 5.25 and a WHIP of 1.667.

Confidence is probably too much, but I still think they can hang around in this thing. Toward the end of his post, Neyer says that if the Sox can get the series back to Tampa Bay, they at least have a chance. You have to assume if the Rays let a 2-0 series lead evaporate into a 2-2 tie, they'll come home on their seat's edge. Can they reverse their struggles indoors? I don't know, but anything can happen in what is essentially a 1-game play-off, and right now, that's all I got going.

If you want a Division Champs hat, you'll need to look for one offline somewhere. Sometime earlier, MLB.com pulled the official hats the Sox were wearing on the field after they beat Minnesota; the ones that look like this. Apparently, the reason is that since the Sox were the last of the 6 division winners to make the cut, they simply ran out of hats. If you notice, all the hats look exactly the same, just with different patches sewn on the front.

If you want one, whitesox.com won't be any help. Check out sporting goods stores around the area.

Finally, the Seattle Times speculates that White Sox assistant GM Rick Hahn is in the running for the vacant GM position with the Mariners. Best of luck. Seattle is a nice town, but Lord help the guy who tries to fix that team right now.

P.S., Rick, if you land the job, I would like to request your first order of business to trade Ichiro to the Sox. We can play hardball here and work out the terms, but I won't take "No" for an answer.

Now We're in Trouble

If you replace "Bears" with "Scott Kazmir," you get a pretty good idea of what just went down in Game 2.

In his first post-season start Kazmir was crappy. He his Orlando Carbera, walked Nick Swisher, and allowed a single to Jermaine Dye. Bases loaded. No outs. Meat of the order coming up. And they scored... Two fucking runs, on a single and sacrifice fly. Garbage.

Mark Buehrle came up pretty big. I can't say he came up huge, because he is going to get hung with a loss in a must-win game, but damnit, he held a 90-win team to 3 runs for nearly 8 innings. So, while Buehrle doesn't get an A+ with a star for this effort (his line is worse than he pitched, as he wore down toward the end and the bullpen allowed 4 more runs to score in the 8th), but the story of the night... No offense.

So, the Sox are down 0-2 to Tampa Bay. But we're coming home to a real ballpark. It's not over, Danks and Floyd have been huge, and if we can send it back to Florida tied at 2, I don't dislike our chances.

More later... Maybe tonight, maybe not.














Fairweathers.

Game 2: Must Win for Sox

Just to reiterate, tomorrow afternoon's game in Tampa is critically important to the Sox. While the Rays would just "play out" their homefield advantage, history says that even if the road team drops its 1st 2 games on the road in the baseball play-offs, they are all but done.

Since baseball expanded the post-season to the Division Series round in 1995, there have been 52 completed LDS series (1995-2007 = 13 years). By my count, the team with home-field advantage has won the first 2 games of the series 19 times and they have gone on to win 16 of those series, an 84% success rate.

1. 2007 ALDS - Red Sox win 1st 2 in Boston, beat Angels in 3
2. 2007 ALDS - Indians win 1st 2 in Cleveland, beat Yankees in 4
3. 2007 NLDS - Diamondbacks win 1st 2 in Phoenix, beat Cubs in 3
4. 2006 NLDS - Mets win 1st 2 in New York, beat Dodgers in 3
5. 2005 ALDS - White Sox win 1st 2 in Chicago, beat Red Sox in 3
6. 2005 NLDS - Cardinals win 1st 2 in St. Louis, beat Padres in 3
7. 2004 NLDS - Cardinals win 1st 2 in St. Louis, beat Dodgers in 4
8. 2003 ALDS - A's win 1st 2 in Oakland, lose to Red Sox in 5
9. 2000 NLDS - Cardinals win 1st 2 in St. Louis, beat Braves in 3
10. 1999 ALDS - Indians win 1st 2 in Cleveland, lose to Red Sox in 5
11. 1999 ALDS - Yankees win 1st 2 in New York, beat Rangers in 3
12. 1998 ALDS - Yankees win 1st 2 in New York, beat Rangers in 3
13. 1998 NLDS - Braves win 1st 2 in Atlanta, beat Cubs in 3
14. 1997 NLDS - Marlins win 1st 2 in Miami, beat Giants in 3
15. 1997 NLDS - Braves win 1st 2 in Atlanta, beat Astros in 3
16. 1996 ALDS - Orioles win 1st 2 in Baltimore, beat Indians in 4
17. 1996 NLDS - Cardinals win 1st 2 in St. Louis, beat Padres in 4
18. 1995 ALDS - Indians win 1st 2 in Cleveland, beat Red Sox in 3
19. 1995 ALDS - Yankees win 1st 2 in New York, lose to Mariners in 5

21 times, however, the road team has split the 1st 2 games. 12 times, the road team that earns a split, 57%, end up winning the series. 84% is certainly not a death sentence, but the White Sox will certainly put themselves in a serious, serious hole if they come home down 0-2.

Here are the series in which the road team earned a split in the 1st 2, and how they ended for them.

1. 2006 ALDS - Tigers split 1st 2 in New York, beat Yankees in 4
2. 2005 ALDS - Yankees split 1st 2 in Los Angeles, lose to Angels in 5
3. 2005 NLDS - Astros split 1st 2 in Atlanta, beat Braves in 4
4. 2004 ALDS - Twins split 1st 2 in New York, lose to Yankees in 4
5. 2004 NLDS - Astros split 1st 2 in Atlanta, beat Braves in 5
6. 2003 ALDS - Twins split 1st 2 in New York, lose to Yankees in 4
7. 2003 NLDS - Marlins split 1st 2 in San Francisco, beat Giants in 4
8. 2003 NLDS - Cubs split 1st 2 in Atlanta, lose to Braves in 5
9. 2002 ALDS - Angels split 1st 2 in New York, beat Yankees in 4
10. 2002 ALDS - Twins split 1st 2 in Oakland, beat A's in 5
11. 2002 NLDS - Giants split 1st 2 in Atlanta, beat Braves in 5
12. 2001 ALDS - Indians split 1st 2 in Seattle, lose to Mariners in 5
13. 2001 NLDS - Cardinals split 1st 2 in Phoenix, lose to Diamondbacks in 5
14. 2000 ALDS - Yankees split 1st 2 in Oakland, beat A's in 5
15. 2000 NLDS - Mets split 1st 2 in San Francisco, beat Giants in 4
16. 1999 NLDS - Astros split 1st 2 in Atlanta, lose to Braves in 4
17. 1999 NLDS - Mets split 1st 2 in Phoenix, beat Diamondbacks in 4
18. 1998 ALDS - Red Sox split 1st 2 in Cleveland, lose to Indians in 4
19. 1998 NLDS - Padres split 1st 2 in Houston, beat Astros in 4
20. 1997 ALDS - Indians split 1st 2 in New York, beat Yankees in 5
21. 1996 ALDS - Rangers split 1st 2 in New York, lose to Yankees in 5
    

No Need to Panic Quite Yet

Yes, this afternoon's 6-4 loss sucked. Sucked hardcore; and once again a lot of the blame falls square on the shoulders of Javier Vazquez who continued to cement his reputation as the anti-Big Game Pitcher. Today's effort fits right in with his career play-off trend. And while Javier claims he would like the ball again,

"I'm not quitting,'' Vazquez said Thursday, after the media horde departed for less depressing lockers. "I want the ball again... I would love to get the ball again, to get another chance. All of us here are competing for the same goal, to win the World Series, and I want to do my part.''

You'd have to believe that Ozzie and crew would be downright crazy to actually do it, and thankfully, Ozzie seems to be on the same page with the rest of the world. Right now, it's wishful thinking if you're even looking at Game 4, let alone Game 5, but Guillen said if the series goes the distance Javier would likely not be getting the call.

So... Why should we all be optimistic? Here's two good reasons: Mark Buehrle and John Danks. The Sox lefties are scheduled to start Games 2 and 3, both on normal rest, and if there has been one Achilles' Heel to the Rays improbable run to the post-season this year, it has been their struggles against left-handed pitching. Did anyone notice that Clayton Fucking Richard completely handcuffed them until he ran out of gas? Yeah, his line doesn't look great; 3.1 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K, but he was clearly coasting on fumes toward the end and allowed the last three batters he saw to reach base... Take those AB's away and Richard got 10 outs, 1/2 of them via strikeout, and allowed only 3 baserunners. Fucking tight. Tampa Bay had the 2nd lowest BA against left handed pitchers in the American League this season, and were only 25-24 when facing a lefty on the hill. But, to play Debbie Downer, the Rays have had some success against Buehrle. So we'll see how this plays out. The point being, everyone, we're not out of this thing yet; we could be down 0-2 after 2 home games (sound familiar?)

Aside from Dewayne's 3-run homer, the only other moment of excitement in today's game occurred in the 7th when Orlando Cabrera and Grant Balfour shared an awkward at bat. Not sure what happened, but after Balfour's 1st picth sailed well outside, Cabrera kicked some dirt in his general direction, and tempers momentarily flared. You can see video embedded at Awful Announcing if you missed the broadcast. After the game, however, Cabrera said it was just a misunderstanding, but this opens the door for some added spice; hopefully the next time the Balfour/Cabrera duel erupts, the outcome is a little better.

Ozzie's decision to start Javier Vazquez in Game 1 had "Airmchair Manager Fodder" written all over it, especially when juxtaposed with Richard's excellent work out of the bullpen. NBC Sport's Baseball "Expert" Tony DeMarco feels that Ozzie's decision to start Javier in Game 1 was a mistake that has put the Sox behind the 8-ball. Here's why I respectfully disagree:

1. It is not critically important for the Sox to have won both games in Tampa Bay. Sure, it'd be nice, but if the Sox leave with a split, they're in very good shape. Mark Buehrle was going to start one of the two games, the question was Game 1 on short rest or Game 2 on normal. Considering Mark has started 2 of his last 3 games on short rest, I'm perfectly happy with the decision to give Mark and extra day off and hopefully put him in a better position to win. Put it this way: would you feel more comfortable with the Sox down 0-1 and Buehrle pitching tomorrow or Buehrle losing Game 1? Exactly.
2. The move allows Danks and Floyd to pitch Games 3 and 4* at the Cell. Granted, Danks' home/road splits favor him on the road, but for both it will be their first postgame start and I don't think you can overestimate the crowd factor. Rather than facing 40,000 cowbell-clanging, mohawk-wearing, clowns amplified because there's a god damn roof on the stadium, the pair of youngsters will come home to 40,000 supportive South Siders wearing black and waving rally towels. Much better. Also, I know you don't like to plan for down the road when you're in "Win Now" mode, but the Sox still need to remember to handle these arms very cautiously. Both Floyd and Danks have pitched a number of innings, many important ones in the past few weeks, and it would be reckless to simply overwork these guys who are so prominent in the short and long-term plans for this team.

Finally, on the lighter side, Jimbo's Pub, the most notable "Sox bar" in Bridgeport lost its appeal in Illinois Appellate Court and looks to be headed the way of the dinosaurs, but fear not, the bar will at least remain open until the end of the White Sox season. Speaking of bars, if you're like me and are a North Side Sox fan, Time Out Chicago published a brief list of "Sox-friendly" bars in enemy territory.

Play-Off Beard Update: About two days since I shaved clean in preparation for October. Anyone who knows me knows that I grow facial hair about as fast as the continents move, so I'm still at that sharp, sandpaper state.

Remember, everyone... Not in trouble yet. Talk to me tomorrow night.

UP NEXT: Tampa Bay Rays, ALDS (Updated)

SERIES SCHEDULE
Game 1: at Tampa Bay, Thursday, Oct. 2, 1:30 PM
Game 2: at Tampa Bay, Friday, Oct. 3, 6 PM
Game 3: at Chicago, Sunday, Oct. 5, Time TBA
Game 4: at Chicago, Monday, Oct. 6, Time TBA -*
Game 5: at Tampa Bay, Wednesday, Oct. 8, Time TBA -*

Games 4 & 5, of course, are if necessary. All times are in Chicago time. All games will be aired on TBS.

Some key Rays stats... They scored 774 runs this season (4.78 RPG), 9th best in the American League. 142 stolen bases, the most in the American League (yikes). 30.8 at bats per HR, 4th best in the A.L. 3.82 overall ERA, 2nd best in the A.L. 3.35 ERA vs. the Sox, 3rd best mark in the A.L., and best of the 6 teams that played the Sox at least 10 times this year. Allowed 40 HR in September, 2nd most in the A.L. that month.

Per usual, the Sox are getting very little love; most national, local, and even electronic pundits are raving about the Rays, picking the Rays, etc.

So why will the White Sox win? Pressure. The Sox pushed themselves to the brink of elimination and had to do something no team has ever done in the 130+ years of MLB history; beat three different teams in three different days to finish a season. Maybe they stumbled toward the very end of the year, but when the clock was about to strike midnight, they answered the call. There's no pressure on them; no one expects them to win, while the Rays have been the darling story of the 2008 season; the champs of the best division in baseball, and a cute pick to win the American League and maybe the World Series.

Pressure.

The series kicks off later today, and Javier Vazquez will get the nod to start Game 1. OK, that's not news to anyone by now, but I am surprised at how many folks are up in a tiff about this. I know Javy didn't make any friends these last few weeks, first by essentially saying how he doesn't care about any of this since he's just focused on that beach in Puerto Rico, and then by imploding against Minnesota and Cleveland, further cementing his reputation as a big game choker, and turning in a 12-16 record and 4.67 ERA, one of his statistcally worst seasons of his career.

I get that, but the bottom line here is that the Sox do not need to win both games in Tampa. Even if Javier lays another egg, if the Sox can win one of the first two, they'll be sitting very pretty heading home to Chicago. Regarldess of how Vazquez performs, the move allows Buehrle, Floyd, and Danks to get back to regular rest and hopefully perform to the best of their abilities.

Javy v. Scott Shields, 1:30 PM.

How good does it feel?

How good does it feel, Sox fans? How good does it feel? If you're reading this, you staved off the seemingly inevitable heart attack/nervous breakdown/any other ailment brought on by last week's roller coaster ride with the Silver and Black.

From the deepest despair, to the brink of elimination, to the guarded optimism of watching the Royals (the friggin' Royals) slap around the Twins at the Metrodome, to the soon-to-follow dejection of watching the Indians slap around the Sox... To the endless scenario projections (if we win today, and the Twins lose, then we play Monday, but if we win that..., etc.), to dejection after Gavin's error, to sweet, sweet joy after Alexei's granny, to finally, ultimately, nervous anxiety replaced by the sweetest, most beautiful ecstacy. Does it get any better than this? Is this not what baseball is made of? 162 games, coming down to 1 run scored over 9 innings?

Thank you, for a wonderful season. A team picked, at best, to finish 3rd in their division, losing some of their best players along the way, scrapped and fought and did it. If you're a White Sox fan, and you truly understand the long, agonizing history of this team, you understand the true gravity of that sentence. They did it. The journey's not complete, but how White Sox would it have been to have checked out today?

Get some rest, tomorrow, everyone. We go from 89-74 today to 0-0 Thursday. Game 1 is in Tampa Bay; first pitch is at 1:30 PM.

What a ride. Hopefully the best is yet to come. GO SOX!