Series Preview... at Tampa Bay, April 16-19

SERIES: at Tropicana Field; Thursday, Friday, and Saturday all are night games while Sunday's first pitch is at 12:38 PM Chicago time.

THURSDAY'S PROBABLES: John Danks (0-0, 0.00) vs. Jeff Niemann (0-1, 10.13)
FRIDAY'S PROBABLES: Bartolo Colon (1-0, 0.00) vs. James Shields (1-1, 3.65)
SATURDAY'S PROBABLES: Mark Buehrle (1-0, 2.38) vs. Scott Kazmir (2-0, 2.84)
SUNDAY'S PROBABLES: Gavin Floyd (1-1, 6.00) vs. Matt Garza (1-0, 1.93)

Obviously, this series is a rematch of last year's ALDS that the Rays took 3-1 from the Sox en route to the American League Championship. Despite their well documented dome woes last year, the Sox were 3-4 at Tropicana Field in 2008, though they did lose their last 3 games in Tampa. The Sox were 1-3 last year in their games against the Rays started by one of the four projected starters this series.

DOME WOES - Already mentioned, but the Sox really struggled under roofs in 2008; winning only 4 of 20 games in domes last year. They hit 31 points lower indoors than out (.236 v .267). One of the few players to swing well inside was Alexei Ramirez, who hit .340/.340/.532. Jermaine Dye, however, hit .163/.213/.275 indoors.

WHO'S HOT - No surprise that Evan Longoria has gotten off to a scorching start. He is currently hitting .441 over his first 8 games of the 2009 season, with an American League leading 5 home runs. However, Longoria will miss tonight's game, as he is home in California attending to a family matter. That said, its pick your poison with the Rays right now. Carlos Pena has 3 HR in the last 7 days and is hitting .321/.387/.714 in that time span, and Jason Bartlett is hitting .346/.370/.654, as well.

WHO'S NOT - Tonight's starter Jeff Niemann had a forgettable first start of the 2009 season, allowing 6 earned runs over 5.1 innings in a 6-0 loss at Baltimore Saturday, however, most of those runs came in the first frame; an inning highlighted by a Melvin Mora grand slam. Though he would appear to be a perfect candidate for the "unknown pitcher who comes out of nowhere to completely baffle the White Sox," never fret; one of Niemann's 5 starts in 2008 came against the Sox and he was soundly rocked; 5 ER, 8 R, 5 H, 4 BB over 3.1 IP in a loss on April 18.

NOT TO TOOT MY OWN HORN, BUT - The Rays were a very chic pick to make another run at the A.L. East crown and go deep in the play-offs, but I was more skeptical. My main reason; Tampa's bullpen, which posted an AL-worst 6.16 ERA in 2007 and then one of the AL's best 3.55 ERA in 2008. Bullpens can be notoriously inconsistent over the course of even a year, so it's no surprise to me that one of the main reasons being discussed on the Gulf Coast for the Rays' slower than expected 4-5 start is their bullpen. Currently, the Rays' bullpen has a 5.63 ERA, good for 10th out of the 14-team American League.

AND IN WHITE SOX NEWS - Chris Getz will be back at the top of the lineup tonight. After missing both games against the Tigers this week, Ozzie told MLB.com's Scott Merkin that Getz will resume his role as second baseman/lead-off hitter. The Sox also have realigned their pitching rotation. John Danks was supposed to get the start Tuesday in Detroit, but that game was rained out. Jose Contreras kept his regular spot in the rotation, in yesterday's loss, but Danks will start tonight and push everyone back a day.

ONE FINAL MATCHUP TO WATCH - Danks, Buehrle, and any other lefty vs. Tampa Bay's offense. If there was one Achilles' heel to last year's American League champs, it was their struggles against left-handed pitching. The Rays posted the 2nd worst batting average (.246) against lefties in 2008 and they were only 25-24 in games against opposing southpaws. John Danks has collectively held the Rays' current lineup to a .260/.316/.397 line in 79 combined plate apperances, while Buehrle has held them to a .268/.307/.357 line in 181 combined PAs. Only Carlos Pena, with 1 HR against each, has homered off the pair. Hell, even Clayton Richard had a great outing against these guys last year. It certainly doesn't hurt to start half your games against these guys with lefties.

The Bats can Wake Up Whenever They Want

Another discouraging loss at the Cell today. After last night's shut out, the Sox pushed their scoreless inning streak to 17, failing to crack the scoreboard until the Carlos Quentin came home on a 1-out groundout by Jermaine Dye. Unfortunately, the Royals tagged 2 runs on Bobby Jenks the inning before, on a double-homer combo by Alberto Callaspo and Coco Crisp (career SLG of .328 and .409 respectively).

You have to feel for John Danks today, he pitched his heart out. Maybe not his best effort ever, but definitely enough to win. When you keep the other team off the scoreboard for 6 innings, you should be celebrating a win, especially when that other team is the Royals, but maybe these aren't your dad's Royals? Or, were we saying that same thing last year when they swept Detroit at Comerica in the opening series last year?

Yes, its only three games (a grand total of 1.9% of the season), but the Sox managed 5 runs and 18 hits in the three game series; 11 of those coming Opening Day, so its hard not to be frustrated right now.

Chicago Tribune recap \ Chicago Sun-Times recap \ MLB.com Wrap \ B-R.com Box Score & PBP

POSITIVES

• John Danks is the most obvious. In his first start after some asshat at Sports Illustrated labels him one of the young pitchers at highest risk for injury, Danks pitched 6 strong innings, allowing no runs and just 3 hits. The only real justice of the day was that he wasn't saddled with a loss as has happened so often already in his young career.
• Carlos Quentin finally notched that first hit of the season, a lead-off double in the 9th that didn't quite spark the rally we hoped for. Still, even with his batting average sitting at .125, Quentin's at least been getting on base, with an OBP of .417, tied for second on the team.
• Overall, the pitching has been very solid. Opponents are hitting .194 against the Sox. The staff ERA is 2.00, and they're averaging more than 1 strike out per inning (1.17). Matt Thornton did a great job cleaning up a mess created by Mike MacDougal and Octavio Dotel continued to dominate; 2 IP, 6 K.
  

NEGATIVES

• Uh, where to start? For brevity's sake, let's just run through the numbers: Alexei Ramirez... 0-4, 2 K, still looking for his first hit of the season; Dewayne Wise... Batting 8th, still hitless, 0-2, 1 K; Chris Getz... leading off 0-4, 1 K; Jim Thome... 0-4, 2K.
  
• Mike MacDougal still looks like shit.

I guess there's a little war of words brewing between Mark Buehrle and management over Buehrle's off-season workout plan (or lack thereof). Joe Cowley writes that the Sox want to see Buehrle work a little harder and get in better shape, but Buehrle is apparently fine with just kicking back and relaxing. While it's nice to think athletes try and take care of their bodies, it is hard to argue with Mark's results... 8 seasons with 30 starts and 200 innings? That's pretty much unheard of in this day in age.

Here's a good read from South Side Sox, one of the finer White Sox blogs out there, on the upcoming seasons for the Sox's minor league affiliates.

Well, I Guess I Jinxed it

Less than 12 hours after I muse about the possibility that Joe Crede's ongoing contract negotiations with the Twins is just a devious ruse orchestrated by puppet master extraordinaire Ken Williams, does Sports Illustrated and Twins blogger La Velle Neal report that now the two sides seem to be agreeing a whole lot more. No surprise that Crede would have to accept a little less than the guaranteed $7 million he was looking for.

If Joe indeed signs with the Twins, I certainly hope it doesn't tarnish his legacy with the Sox. No, he never quite lived up to the hype, but was an above average hitter, an excellent defensive third baseman, and when the lights shined brightest on the White Sox, he brought his A game. He slugged .622 during the 12-game play-off run in 2005, 180 points above his career average. He hit 4 home runs, drove in 11 runs, and easily could have been named ALCS MVP.

Shockingly, Joe only played 4 full seasons in Chicago. He didn't win the job until 2003, after the Sox released Royce Clayton and Jose Valentin shifted back to shortstop. It seemed like a lifetime, from his pair of minor league MVP awards and coronation as the next Robin Ventura to the bitter contract dispute that irreversibly damaged the relationship between the team and its third baseman.

Thanks for the memories, Joe. Thanks for the World Series. If you sign with Minnesota, I'll wish you the best of individual luck, but I hope you finish dead last every year.

UPDATE: Mid-post, Mark Gonzales is reporting that Crede and the Twins have agreed to a deal. Get your tickets for April 10!

Elsewhere, the Fort Worth Star Telegram again revisits the Danks-McCarthy deal, apparently, just to twist the knife a bit more on Ranger fans. This trade has been so ludicrously one-sided now, I feel bad for Brandon McCarthy. I wonder how athletes deal with being that level of a disappointment on a personal and organizational level. That said, I don't mind the Sox being on this side of these deals.

A great post at South Side Sox exploring the "Masset Theory," which states that no matter how much you rid yourself of expendable bullpen arms, there's always plenty to be had. Good for a laugh as well as a brief introduction to several names you'll likely utter in disgust when they serve up a late-inning homer.

Despite the seemingly endless barrage of trade rumors, Jermaine Dye still enjoys playing in Chicago and even went so far as to say he'd "like to finish his career here." Not sure how likely that situation is to play out, Dye is probably going to have to take a hometown discount to stay with the Sox, but with Jim Thome's $13 million coming off the books after 2009 and Paul Konerko's $12 million coming off after 2010, there might be extra money Dye, especially if he's willing to become a full-time DH. Specifically, Jermaine noted that he likes playing for Ozzie.

Finally, if you're in a betting kind of mood, Bodog.com, one of the largest online sports books released its pre-season odds for all sort of futures stakes in the 2009 MLB season. As for the Central division? Currently the odds are:

1. Twins, 7/4
2. Indians, 2/1
3. Tigers, 7/2
4. White Sox, 4/1
5. Royals, 14/1

Also, if you're wondering, the Sox are 14/1 odds to win the American League (somehow, besting the Twins' 15/1 odds) and 30/1 odds to bring home the title. Decent odds, if you believe in this team.

Not Over Yet

Hey, what do you know, they do want to keep playing ball?

After looking dead, old, tired, etc. in two ugly losses to the young and upstart Rays this week, the Sox once again stood on the edge of the cliff, toes overhanging, on the verge of season's end... And once again they pulled it out.

They're getting a lot of attention tonight, from local, out of market, national, and even international press regarding their stubborn resiliency. In the past week, the Sox have played 4 "must-win" games and they've come up aces in every one of them. Funny how in just 2 days you can go from down in the dumps (Friday afternoon) to feeling pretty good about things (today). I don't claim that this win swung the series back in the Sox's favor, even if they win tomorrow they still need to beat Tampa Bay in their dome to advance to the ALCS, a tall task in and of itself. But, at least they didn't just roll over and die for Tampa, either. Now, for some praise.

John Danks, of course, who won his 2nd consecutive "Do or Die" game. His line wasn't overpowering, just 6.2 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 BB, and 7 K, but the all important win. Danks made pitches when they counted; in the first Tampa put 2 of its first 3 hitters on base and walked away with a goose egg. In the 2nd, after Tampa Bay struck first on a 45-foot RBI single by Akinori Iwamura, Danks could have imploded, especially when the Iwamura and Jason Bartlett moved to 2nd and 3rd respectively on a wild pitch. Instead, Danks got BJ Upton to fly out and end the threat. Danks wasn't spectacular, but he won.

How about Dewayne Wise, who keeps finding ways to win? The career minor leaguer who came up with the Sox's only big hit in the first two games of this series continued his big play in Game 3, stroking a big, 2-run double down the left field line in the Sox's big 4th inning that turned out to ultimately put the Rays down for good. Wise is hitting .400 in the LDS so far, 2nd on the team only to AJ Pierzynski (who had a nice 2-3, 1 RBI, 1 BB game himself batting 2nd for only the 4th time since September 9th). He's been so good even Fox Sport's Senior Baseball writer, Ken Rosenthal has taken notice:

White Sox left fielder Dewayne Wise is the kind of player who makes the baseball postseason unlike any other. Wise, 30, didn't even have a job at the start of spring training. Now, he's starring in the Division Series.

The bullpen trio of Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, and Bobby Jenks also were huge in putting this game out of reach. When Upton launched his 2-run bomb that made everyone sweat a litle harder, it was clear Danks was out of gas and in a do or die game, Ozzie needed his three best relievers to seal the deal. They were beautiful, whether it be striking out Evan Longoria looking, having great reactions and making great plays on a bizarre dropped third strike against Willy Aybar, or or slamming the door in Tampa Bay's faces with some 95+ MPH heat. For a unit that's been pretty rightfully maligned this season, the Sox's bullpen has by and large stepped up their game lately when needed.

Lastly, Ken Griffey, Jr. for tagging on up Alexei Ramirez's sac fly, moving from 1st to 2nd. Had he played it safe and stayed at first, he wouldn't have scored on Wise's double, and with Juan Uribe and Orlando Cabrera failing to keep the rally going, the Sox would have been out what proved to be a pretty crucial run. For all the homers and power the Sox can display, they played very smart and very aggressive baseball. They did the small and smart things needed to win games, rather than sit back and wait for someone to hit a 3-run homer. It was actually, very fun to watch.

So, Game 4 is tomorrow at the Cell... Gavin Floyd faces Andy Sonnanstine at 4:07 PM Central time. Nothing has been decided yet in the American League, so don't stop believing, Sox fans!

And now, for a few news tidbits before bed. Carlos Quentin took some live BP today at the Cell and said he felt great in a postgame interview. Ozzie Guillen was a bit more skeptical of Quentin's chances of returning to play in 2008, even if the White Sox advance past the ALDS, but it's nice to see Carlos working his tail off to even make a return a slim reality and not a complete fairytale.

Fox Sport's Gerry Fraley wrote a nice piece about Ken Williams' deliberate plan to keep the Sox competitive past the glory of the 2005 season. Though the Sox took a lot of heat after Games 1 and 2 for looking old and plodding; it's nice to step back and look at the enviable talented core of young playes they have; Alexei Ramirez (26), Carlos Quentin (25), Gavin Floyd (25), and John Danks (23) are as solid as any 4 young and upcoming stars on one team. Though 2007 was a distaster, both the short and long term future of the Sox looks good thanks in large part to Williams' wheeling and dealing.

As for Rays' fans, panic may be too strong a word for their current mindset, but concern may be right on target? A Rays blogger noted what a difference one game makes.

The White Sox looked very much at home. And they looked very much like a veteran team, getting stronger as the game wore on, making adjustments to Matt Garza's power game, staying patient, hitting the ball where it was pitched.

Finally, Metromix has a sweet slideshow of photos from the Sox's win this afternoon up. For anyone lucky enought to attend, try and find yourself! Tomorrow's game already looks to be a sell out (at least, according to Ticketmaster), but there are still some deals available on StubHub.

Go Sox.