Thursday, April 16, 2009

Series Preview... at Tampa Bay, April 16-19

SERIES: at Tropicana Field; Thursday, Friday, and Saturday all are night games while Sunday's first pitch is at 12:38 PM Chicago time.

THURSDAY'S PROBABLES: John Danks (0-0, 0.00) vs. Jeff Niemann (0-1, 10.13)
FRIDAY'S PROBABLES: Bartolo Colon (1-0, 0.00) vs. James Shields (1-1, 3.65)
SATURDAY'S PROBABLES: Mark Buehrle (1-0, 2.38) vs. Scott Kazmir (2-0, 2.84)
SUNDAY'S PROBABLES: Gavin Floyd (1-1, 6.00) vs. Matt Garza (1-0, 1.93)

Obviously, this series is a rematch of last year's ALDS that the Rays took 3-1 from the Sox en route to the American League Championship. Despite their well documented dome woes last year, the Sox were 3-4 at Tropicana Field in 2008, though they did lose their last 3 games in Tampa. The Sox were 1-3 last year in their games against the Rays started by one of the four projected starters this series.

DOME WOES - Already mentioned, but the Sox really struggled under roofs in 2008; winning only 4 of 20 games in domes last year. They hit 31 points lower indoors than out (.236 v .267). One of the few players to swing well inside was Alexei Ramirez, who hit .340/.340/.532. Jermaine Dye, however, hit .163/.213/.275 indoors.

WHO'S HOT - No surprise that Evan Longoria has gotten off to a scorching start. He is currently hitting .441 over his first 8 games of the 2009 season, with an American League leading 5 home runs. However, Longoria will miss tonight's game, as he is home in California attending to a family matter. That said, its pick your poison with the Rays right now. Carlos Pena has 3 HR in the last 7 days and is hitting .321/.387/.714 in that time span, and Jason Bartlett is hitting .346/.370/.654, as well.

WHO'S NOT - Tonight's starter Jeff Niemann had a forgettable first start of the 2009 season, allowing 6 earned runs over 5.1 innings in a 6-0 loss at Baltimore Saturday, however, most of those runs came in the first frame; an inning highlighted by a Melvin Mora grand slam. Though he would appear to be a perfect candidate for the "unknown pitcher who comes out of nowhere to completely baffle the White Sox," never fret; one of Niemann's 5 starts in 2008 came against the Sox and he was soundly rocked; 5 ER, 8 R, 5 H, 4 BB over 3.1 IP in a loss on April 18.

NOT TO TOOT MY OWN HORN, BUT - The Rays were a very chic pick to make another run at the A.L. East crown and go deep in the play-offs, but I was more skeptical. My main reason; Tampa's bullpen, which posted an AL-worst 6.16 ERA in 2007 and then one of the AL's best 3.55 ERA in 2008. Bullpens can be notoriously inconsistent over the course of even a year, so it's no surprise to me that one of the main reasons being discussed on the Gulf Coast for the Rays' slower than expected 4-5 start is their bullpen. Currently, the Rays' bullpen has a 5.63 ERA, good for 10th out of the 14-team American League.

AND IN WHITE SOX NEWS - Chris Getz will be back at the top of the lineup tonight. After missing both games against the Tigers this week, Ozzie told MLB.com's Scott Merkin that Getz will resume his role as second baseman/lead-off hitter. The Sox also have realigned their pitching rotation. John Danks was supposed to get the start Tuesday in Detroit, but that game was rained out. Jose Contreras kept his regular spot in the rotation, in yesterday's loss, but Danks will start tonight and push everyone back a day.

ONE FINAL MATCHUP TO WATCH - Danks, Buehrle, and any other lefty vs. Tampa Bay's offense. If there was one Achilles' heel to last year's American League champs, it was their struggles against left-handed pitching. The Rays posted the 2nd worst batting average (.246) against lefties in 2008 and they were only 25-24 in games against opposing southpaws. John Danks has collectively held the Rays' current lineup to a .260/.316/.397 line in 79 combined plate apperances, while Buehrle has held them to a .268/.307/.357 line in 181 combined PAs. Only Carlos Pena, with 1 HR against each, has homered off the pair. Hell, even Clayton Richard had a great outing against these guys last year. It certainly doesn't hurt to start half your games against these guys with lefties.

1 comment:

Arthur Fonzarelli said...

saw my first Twins game of the season last night at the Big Inflatable Toilet, which the Blue Jays won 12-2. that was nice to see. co-worker scored a couple of the company seats and asked me at the 11th hour if i wanted to go. i didn't, but i went anyway.