Game 2: Must Win for Sox

Just to reiterate, tomorrow afternoon's game in Tampa is critically important to the Sox. While the Rays would just "play out" their homefield advantage, history says that even if the road team drops its 1st 2 games on the road in the baseball play-offs, they are all but done.

Since baseball expanded the post-season to the Division Series round in 1995, there have been 52 completed LDS series (1995-2007 = 13 years). By my count, the team with home-field advantage has won the first 2 games of the series 19 times and they have gone on to win 16 of those series, an 84% success rate.

1. 2007 ALDS - Red Sox win 1st 2 in Boston, beat Angels in 3
2. 2007 ALDS - Indians win 1st 2 in Cleveland, beat Yankees in 4
3. 2007 NLDS - Diamondbacks win 1st 2 in Phoenix, beat Cubs in 3
4. 2006 NLDS - Mets win 1st 2 in New York, beat Dodgers in 3
5. 2005 ALDS - White Sox win 1st 2 in Chicago, beat Red Sox in 3
6. 2005 NLDS - Cardinals win 1st 2 in St. Louis, beat Padres in 3
7. 2004 NLDS - Cardinals win 1st 2 in St. Louis, beat Dodgers in 4
8. 2003 ALDS - A's win 1st 2 in Oakland, lose to Red Sox in 5
9. 2000 NLDS - Cardinals win 1st 2 in St. Louis, beat Braves in 3
10. 1999 ALDS - Indians win 1st 2 in Cleveland, lose to Red Sox in 5
11. 1999 ALDS - Yankees win 1st 2 in New York, beat Rangers in 3
12. 1998 ALDS - Yankees win 1st 2 in New York, beat Rangers in 3
13. 1998 NLDS - Braves win 1st 2 in Atlanta, beat Cubs in 3
14. 1997 NLDS - Marlins win 1st 2 in Miami, beat Giants in 3
15. 1997 NLDS - Braves win 1st 2 in Atlanta, beat Astros in 3
16. 1996 ALDS - Orioles win 1st 2 in Baltimore, beat Indians in 4
17. 1996 NLDS - Cardinals win 1st 2 in St. Louis, beat Padres in 4
18. 1995 ALDS - Indians win 1st 2 in Cleveland, beat Red Sox in 3
19. 1995 ALDS - Yankees win 1st 2 in New York, lose to Mariners in 5

21 times, however, the road team has split the 1st 2 games. 12 times, the road team that earns a split, 57%, end up winning the series. 84% is certainly not a death sentence, but the White Sox will certainly put themselves in a serious, serious hole if they come home down 0-2.

Here are the series in which the road team earned a split in the 1st 2, and how they ended for them.

1. 2006 ALDS - Tigers split 1st 2 in New York, beat Yankees in 4
2. 2005 ALDS - Yankees split 1st 2 in Los Angeles, lose to Angels in 5
3. 2005 NLDS - Astros split 1st 2 in Atlanta, beat Braves in 4
4. 2004 ALDS - Twins split 1st 2 in New York, lose to Yankees in 4
5. 2004 NLDS - Astros split 1st 2 in Atlanta, beat Braves in 5
6. 2003 ALDS - Twins split 1st 2 in New York, lose to Yankees in 4
7. 2003 NLDS - Marlins split 1st 2 in San Francisco, beat Giants in 4
8. 2003 NLDS - Cubs split 1st 2 in Atlanta, lose to Braves in 5
9. 2002 ALDS - Angels split 1st 2 in New York, beat Yankees in 4
10. 2002 ALDS - Twins split 1st 2 in Oakland, beat A's in 5
11. 2002 NLDS - Giants split 1st 2 in Atlanta, beat Braves in 5
12. 2001 ALDS - Indians split 1st 2 in Seattle, lose to Mariners in 5
13. 2001 NLDS - Cardinals split 1st 2 in Phoenix, lose to Diamondbacks in 5
14. 2000 ALDS - Yankees split 1st 2 in Oakland, beat A's in 5
15. 2000 NLDS - Mets split 1st 2 in San Francisco, beat Giants in 4
16. 1999 NLDS - Astros split 1st 2 in Atlanta, lose to Braves in 4
17. 1999 NLDS - Mets split 1st 2 in Phoenix, beat Diamondbacks in 4
18. 1998 ALDS - Red Sox split 1st 2 in Cleveland, lose to Indians in 4
19. 1998 NLDS - Padres split 1st 2 in Houston, beat Astros in 4
20. 1997 ALDS - Indians split 1st 2 in New York, beat Yankees in 5
21. 1996 ALDS - Rangers split 1st 2 in New York, lose to Yankees in 5