My Five Keys for the White Sox

Over at The Daily Herald Friday, Scot Gregor published his five keys to the upcoming White Sox season. It's a good article that underscores a lot of points that have already been beaten in the ground as the team opens camp in Glendale today. Yes, the Sox are going to lean heavily on their youth movement this year, but truthfully, almost every team in Major League Baseball will filling roster gaps with some unproven kid fresh from the minor leagues. I'm not sure if it's the complete lack of internal player development over the better part of this decade, or the nearly unparallelled run of sustained success the Sox have enjoyed during that stretch that makes it seem like filling holes with rookies is such a novel concept, but on the South Side, it is.

Anyways, getting back to Gregor, in summary, his five keys to this season are:

1. Bartolo Colon
2. Chris Getz or Brent Lillibridge, whoever starts at second
3. Josh Fields
4. Carlos Quentin (mostly, proving that his breakout season in 2008 was legit)
5. Jerry Owens

Now, it's not that I disagree with any of these picks you can (as Gregor shows) make strong cases that the Sox will need solid seasons from these guys if they expect to repeat as division champs. This, however, would not be my Top 5 list, which goes something like:

#1 - Gavin Floyd
Along with John Danks, Gavin Floyd was one of the major reasons the White Sox surprised pundits and fans and eeked into the play-offs. The Sox placed the ball in his hands every 5th game and he didn't disappoint, posting a 17-8 record with a 3.84 ERA in 206.1 IP. Yes, the back end of the rotation sticks out at you like a sore thumb, but for the Sox to even matter in 2009, they'll their front three, Buehrle, Danks, and Floyd to repeat their excellent 2008 campaigns.

Over at FanGraphs, David Golebiewski does a nice job going over several reasons why you can legitimately be concerned about Gavin in '09, his strike-out rate is alarming low and lefties hit him very well. For shits and giggles, I'll add a few more. Gavin's BABIP in 2008 was .259, well below the average that's generally around .300. Generally, it's bad enough when pitchers who pitch to contact are expected to regress back to a league-average BABIP, but that may even be accelerated by the fact the White Sox have questionable defensive players all over the field.

To be fair, there was a lot to like about Gavin's year, too. He was remarkably consistent, and kept his season ERA within 1-point range over his last 27 starts. From May 11 to the end of the season, his low-water mark was 2.92 and his high-water was 3.91. And even though his 2nd half ERA was over a half run higher than his first (4.18 v. 3.55), his peripherals were much better, especially his two most worrisome areas; he struck out more batters and allowed fewer home runs per inning as the season progressed.

There's no doubt that Gavin can continue to grow into the pitcher he seemed destined to become in 2001 when the Phillies drafted him 4th overall but, more so than any other pitcher, the White Sox's season depends on his continued development and another strong season.

#2 - Paul Konerko
In 2006, Paul Konerko hit .313/.381/.551, a very good line that represent his career best at all three stats. Two years later, he struggled through an injury-plagued campaign in which he seemed lost, overmatched, and frankly, over the hill. If you think his final line of .240/.344/.438 was bad, remember that as late as August 12, Konerko was hitting under .220 and had just 11 home runs. If there's reason to be optimistic about Paul in '09, look no further than his last 6 weeks when he hit .292/.396/.625. When healthy, Paul was the rock in the middle of the White Sox lineup we've known for the better part of the 10 seasons he's been here.

It seems to me that Paul's terrible 2008 season can be explained only by bad luck and injuries (more bad luck). His BABIP was .244, almost 40 points below his career norm, and even more shocking his BA on line drives was staggeringly low at .551 (the Major League average is generally around .700). At 33, he may seem like an injury risk, but the 122 games Paul played in 2008 was his lowest total since becoming a full-time player in 1999. Combined with the quality of play down the stretch run of the season (when he was finally healthy), and Paul Konerko becomes a prime candidate for big, comeback year and a rock in the White Sox's lineup.

#3 - Clayton Richard
I'm not 100% sure yet what role Clayton will play for the Sox in 2009, but it looks like it will be a big one. Right now, Richard is slated to be the Sox's fifth starter, but I'm still not so sure how well suited he is for that role. It seems most people fell in love with Richard during his excellent mop-up job in Game 1 of the ALDS, but that performance needs to be taken with a large grain of salt, in 2008, the Rays had the 2nd worst offense in the American League against left-handed pitching.

As it stands now, there's not much about Richard that really gets me excited. His numbers at the Major League level are pretty pedestrian; 6.04 ERA, 1.552 WHIP, and only 5.47 K/ 9 IP (league average = 6.64). What gets me excited about him? He keeps the ball on the ground (essential for surviving in a park like US Cellular Field) and just has a kind of bulldog moxy about him, which makes him an ideal candidate for the bullpen. With Boone Logan thankfully in Atlanta, the Sox have exactly zero left-handed bullpen arms after Matt Thornton. Unfortunately, their lack of depth at starting pitching will probably hurt Richard's development and the team in 2009.

#4 - Jerry Owens
As the frontrunner to land the Sox lead-off spot, Owens will potentially have quite a say in whether or not the Sox swim or sink this year. He's already 28, so it's hard to imagine him getting much better... But if his 2007 season is any indication of his talent, all hope may not be lost. As you may well be aware, the lead-off spot for the Sox was a bit of a problem in 2008. The spot was occupied primarily by Orlando Cabrera (128 G) and Nick Swisher (29), neither of whom fit the "classic lead-off hitter mold." All said, the Sox lead-off hitters combined to hit .274/.339/.372. Not too far off from the .267/.324/.312 line Owens posted in 2007. Though the power is lacking, that's not something in short supply for the Sox.

Owens' speed and the fact that he plays center field is probably enough to qualify him to lead-off for the White Sox in 2009, for better or worse. If he can take instruction well (remember, the Sox turned Scott Podsednik into a dangerous leadoff hitter one year removed from a season in which his OBP was .313) and stay healthy, Owens could at least pass for a lead-off hitter enough for the Sox offense to click.

#5 - AJ Pierzynski
Gavin Floyd is out to prove 2008 was no fluke. Paul Konerko is out to prove he's past 2008's injuries and can still hit. Clayton Richard is out to prove he belongs in the Majors. Jerry Owens is out to prove he can get on base. AJ Pierzynski, on the other hand, has been as reliable as they come, since joining the Sox, averaging 134 games per season. His career averages over 162 games is 14 HR and 74 RBI. So what makes him a key to the season? Well, if you've looked at the White Sox depth chart lately, you'll see they have nothing that resembles a contingency plan in case AJ goes down for any time.

Right now, rookie Cole Armstrong has the inside track to backup Pierzynski in the show. Armstrong's spend three seasons in the White Sox organization and while his numbers have been OK, he's never been viewed as a really exciting prospect. There's still room for growth, as Armstrong will only be 25, but for the most important and physically demanding position in the game, the lack of organizational catching depth is dangerous. During his tenure here, the White Sox have posted a cumulative 4.27 ERA, not great but still very respectable. Undoubtedly, the staff has developed a strong rapport with AJ, and while that would be impossible to reproduce with any other catcher, it's likely the process would be twice as difficult if they were weaning in a rookie.