Friday, February 13, 2009

2008-09 White Sox Off-Season Recap

Can you feel it? The days are longer, the weather is warmer, football has once again disappeared... Birds are singing, bees are trying to have sex with them... As is my understanding. There's a tinge of Spring in the air and, just as it should be, Spring Training will begin in camps across Florida and Arizona.

Of course, the 2008 White Sox were division champs and had one of the most bizarre seasons in franchise history. For all the inconsistency and dissapointment, they sure were quite a lot of fun. As the Sox prepare for their 2009 campaign, it's time to look back on the successes and failures of this off-season.

Key Acquisitions
  • IF Jayson Nix; FA/Rockies
  • IF Wilson Betemit; Trade/Yankees
  • RHP Jeff Marquez; Trade/Yankees
  • RHP Kelvin Jimenez; Waivers/Blue Jays
  • C Tyler Flowers; Trade/Braves
  • IF Brent Lillibridge; Trade/Braves
  • 3B Dayan Viciedo; FA/Cuba
  • RHP Bartolo Colon; FA/Red Sox

Key Departures

  • OF Ken Griffey, Jr.; FA/Unsigned
  • C Toby Hall; FA/Astros
  • OF-1B Nick Swisher; Trade/Yankees
  • RHP Javier Vazquez; Trade/Braves
  • LHF Boone Logan; Trade/Braves
  • 3B Joe Crede; FA/Unsigned
  • SS Orlando Cabrera; FA/Unsigned
  • IF Juan Uribe; FA/Giants

Though there was some turnover and the Sox are admittedly trying to get younger and faster, but the core of the team that won 89 games and the division last year returns completely intact. Whether or not the Sox can successfully rebuild while competing rests quite a bit on the '08-'09 off-season. Here's how they did...

Goal #1 - Move away from the "Home Run-or-Nothing" Style of Offense


The above graph shows how much each American League team depended on the home run to score in 2008. As you can see, the notion that the White Sox were an "all or nothing" offense is very true. Over 47% of the White Sox's runs in 2008 scored via the home run (view all the data here, thanks to Baseball-Reference's awesome Play Index). The difference between them and #2 (Detroit) was almost 10%, which is the same difference as between Detroit and #13 (Kansas City). Obviously something was wrong with the White Sox's offense.

The White Sox's answer to this problem was to try to get younger, faster, and sleeker. They dumped Nick Swisher and Javier Vazquez for prospects and left a lot of spots on the roster open, such as second base, to younger talent rather than sign older, more experience veterans, like Orlando Hudson. While the idea was good, the execution still leaves a lot to be desired. Do you really see this team sustaining exciting rallies, or do you see the Sox relying on the same brand of station-to-station baseball punctuated by the long ball? While this off-season may have set the Sox on a better course for 2010 and beyond, it's hard to see this year's version differing much than last with their approach at the plate.

Goal #2 - Rebuild the Farm System

When the Sox acquired Nick Swisher from Oakland last off season, the trade depleted the White Sox farm system. Though work is not yet done (ESPN's Keith Law still ranked the organization in the lower half of baseball), the White Sox have done a marvelous job of adding a lot of talent to their farm system. According to Mark Gonzales, Baseball America's Top 10 Prospect list for the White Sox will be:
  1. Gordon Beckam
  2. Dayan Viciedo
  3. Aaron Poreda
  4. Tyler Flowers
  5. Clayton Richard
  6. Brandon Allen
  7. Jordan Danks
  8. Brent Lillibridge
  9. Chris Getz
  10. John Shelby, Jr.

The bolded names are players who have been added to the organization within the past year. Five of the Top 8 prospects in the White Sox farm system have been added via the draft and trades. Considering the disarray the White Sox's farm system was in just a year ago, the turnaround has been stunning.

Goal #3 - Stay Competitive During a Phase of Rebuilding

This relates to the first two goals, but that has been the mantra of Kenny Williams over the past year. The White Sox's average age in 2008 was 30.5 for positional players and 28.3 for pitchers, third oldest and sixth oldest in the American League respectively. The writing was on the wall, for the Sox to maintain their level of success on the field, they would need to start getting younger. Instead of tearing the walls down and starting from square 1, Williams has decided to take a more modest approach. While it's easy to say pushing the restart button on the franchise is the better approach, I disagree, and I think the Sox's brass does, too.

Since the advent of the Wild Card, baseball's play-offs have turned into a complete crapshoot. Simply having the best team is no guarantee of success. Few people will argue that the Cubs were the best team in the National League in 2008, and they barely competed in their 3-game sweep to the Dodgers. Likewise, the 2006 Cardinals barely qualified for the play-offs but caught lightning in the bottle at the right time and won the whole thing, beating three better teams in consecutive short series. The point is that right now the Central division is not too imposing. Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota, and Kansas City all have fatal flaws that keep them from running away with the pack. While the Sox could have packed it in for the next few years while trying to build a juggernaut, the plan looks to keep the team respectable while slowly building from the inside. The goal of any organization, I'm convinced, should be to make the play-offs, because after that really anything can happen. To throw away the window of opportunity that is available would be a mistake.

Conclusion

Overall, in the long run the White Sox seem to have positioned themselves well this off-season. They've added youth, replaced a few parts that didn't quite fit, and put themselves on a road to sustained success. How many wins that will translate to in 2009, however, I'm not sure. The Sox failed to add adequate pitching depth and a lead-off hitter, two necessary ingredients to the 2005 team that brought home a trophy. Whether it was Williams' unwillingness to depart from his plan or budget constraints, we'll never know, but for all the good the Sox seem to have done since the final out of 2008, a lot of that will be forgotten if these key and prominent holes are the ultimate undoing of this team.

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